Analyse de Marchés Quotidienne - 16.05.2013

Major US stock indices gained slightly despite disappointing economic data. In response to yesterday’s developers’ conference in San Francisco, Google shares rose above $900 per share for the first time in the company’s history. Since the beginning of the year, the search giant’s shares have gained by more than 28%. The S&P 500 gained by 0.37%, the NASDAQ by 0.15%, and the Dow Jones by 0.36%. Technically, according to the 1-hour chart, the NASDAQ is trading near the upper limit of the ascending channel and could continue channeling by dropping towards the support level of $2,985. The main trend for the NASDAQ remains bullish. The Dow Jones will continue to trade higher as long as it is above the support level of $15,180.

US Dollar (USD)
The US Dollar gained against most of the other major currencies in response to investors’ expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to support the US economy. The PPI came out worse than expected, at -0.7% vs. the forecast -0.6%, and Industrial Production dropped to
-0.5% vs. the forecast -0.1%. Today, Building Permits are expected to come out at 0.94M vs. 0.91M previously, the Core CPI at 0.2% vs. 0.1% previously, Unemployment Claims at 332K vs. 323K previously, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 2.5 vs. 1.3 previously.

Gold
Gold declined by 2.65% as the strengthening US Dollar lowered demand for Gold as an alternative investment. Technically, Gold is struggling with the support level of $1,387. Should Gold break below this level, it could move towards $1,363; should the precious metal fail to do so, it could move back towards $1,405 levels.
Gold – Last: 1393

Resistance 140514291441Support138713631325


Crude Oil
Crude Oil prices finished the trading day almost unchanged, closing at $94.35 a barrel after Crude Oil inventories came out lower than expected (at -0.6M vs. the forecast 0.5M), which increased the demand for Oil and erased earlier losses. Technically, Crude Oil faces strong resistance at $94.40.

Should Crude Oil hold below this resistance level, it could move towards 92.50 levels; should, however, the commodity cross this resistance level, it could move towards 95.25 levels.

Crude Oil – Last: 94.35

Resistance 94.4094.8095.25Support93.5093.0092.50


Euro (EUR)
The euro dropped versus the US Dollar and most other major currencies in response to disappointing GDP reports in France, Germany, Italy, and other Eurozone countries. The Flash GDP came out at -0.2% vs. the forecast -0.1%, and the German Prelim GDP came out at 0.1% vs. the forecast 0.3%. Technically, the EUR/USD was rejected from the support level of 1.2840 and bounced back to 1.2890 areas. Should the currency pair cross the 1.2840 level, it might fall to 1.2770 levels. Today, The Trade Balance is expected to come out at 11.8B versus -12.0B previously.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.2885

Resistance 1.29401.30001.3050Support1.28401.28001.2750


British Pound (GBP)
The Pound gained versus most of its counterparts after the Bank of England’s quarterly Inflation Report indicated a lower inflation forecast and he possibility that economic growth for this quarter would hit 0.5% (as opposed to 0.3% during the last three months). The Claimant Count Change came out better than expected, at -7.3K vs. the forecast -3.1K, and the Unemployment Rate came out at 7.8% vs. the forecast 7.9%. Technically, according to the 4-hour RSI, the GBP/USD reached the strong support level of 1.5190 and is near oversold conditions, which indicates the possibility of a strong upwards retracement. No major economic data is expected to be released today in the UK.
GBP/USD - Last: 1.5233

Resistance 1.52501.53201.5380Support1.51901.51501.5100


Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar gained against other major currencies after American industrial production dropped; the CAD gained even though Canadian Manufacturing Sales came out worse than expected, at -0.3% vs. the forecast 0.6%. Technically, the USD/CAD is trading near the support line of the long-term uptrend; the currency pair is expected to again rise towards 1.0200. Today, Foreign Securities Purchases are expected to be released at 5.36B vs. -6.31B previously.
USD/CAD - Last: 1.0155

Resistance 1.01701.02201.0250Support1.01401.01001.0060